Overview
- Refining
- Petron Malaysia owns and operates the Port Dickson Refinery (PDR), with a capacity of ~88,000 barrels per day.
- The refinery produces a variety of refined petroleum products, including gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, LPG, naphtha, and low sulfur waxy residue.
- They also have a Palm Methyl Ester (PME) plant (in Lumut, Perak) which produces biodiesel inputs used in diesel blends.
- Marketing / Distribution
- Retail Fuel Business: They operate a large network of service stations (over 750 according to its annual report) across Peninsular and East Malaysia.
- Their retail fuel products include: Blaze 100 (RON 100), Blaze 97, Blaze 95 (meeting Euro-4M), and diesel products (Euro-5) with PME biodiesel blends.
- Convenience Stores / Service Station Retailing: They run convenience stores (P-Kedai), “Treats” shops, and other amenities at some stations.
- Commercial Fuels
- They supply fuel to industrial / wholesale customers — like manufacturing, plantations, construction, transportation, and power plants.
- Aviation Fuel: They provide jet fuel to airlines / aviation clients.
- LPG Business: They market LPG in cylinder form (residential) and in bulk / commercial form.
- Lubricants & Specialties
- They produce and market lubricants, greases, and specialty products (e.g. high-temperature greases) for both automotive and industrial customers.
- Also brake fluids and other specialty products.
- Sustainability / Clean Fuels
- They have made investments in cleaner-fuel technologies: for example, their Diesel Hydrotreater facility to produce lower-sulfur diesel.
- Their PME (palm methyl ester) plant is part of their biofuel / biodiesel-blend strategy.
- They also identify climate-related risks and are focusing on circular-economy solutions, per their sustainability report.
Executive Summary
The stock experienced a significant bull run from February to April 2024, reaching a peak. This was followed by a sharp correction and a prolonged, volatile downtrend that lasted over a year. The price appears to have found a bottom around March 2025 and is currently in the early stages of a potential new recovery or consolidation phase, but it remains below all major long-term moving averages, indicating the overall trend is still not conclusively bullish.
Detailed Technical Analysis
1. Trend Analysis
- Long-Term Trend (SMA200): The 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA200) starts at 4.21 and declines to 3.74 by the end of the data. The price spent most of 2024 and 2025 below the SMA200, confirming a long-term downtrend. The recent bounce from the lows has not yet challenged this key average.
- Medium-Term Trend (SMA50): The 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA50) also trends downwards, from 4.25 to 3.79. The price has been predominantly below the SMA50, acting as dynamic resistance during the downtrend.
- Verdict: The primary trend from April 2024 onwards is BEARISH. The recent price action suggests a potential trend change from “down” to “sideways/accumulation,” but it is too early to confirm a new bull market.
2. Support and Resistance
- Key Resistance Levels:
- Primary: ~4.87 (the all-time high from June 2024). This is the major level to watch for a true bull market resumption.
- Secondary: ~4.00 – 4.10 (the peak from November 2025 and a previous support zone from early 2024).
- Immediate: ~3.82 – 3.86 (the recent highs from October-November 2025 and the area where the 50-day and 200-day MAs likely reside).
- Key Support Levels:
- Primary: ~2.93 – 3.02 (the absolute low from April 2025). A break below this would be extremely bearish.
- Secondary: ~3.30 – 3.35 (a level that held during several tests in mid-2025).
- Immediate: ~3.50 (the recent base formed in July-August 2025).
- Verdict: The stock is currently trading in a range between ~3.50 (support) and ~3.82 (resistance). A breakout above 3.86 could signal a test of the 4.00 resistance.
3. Volume Analysis
- The most significant volume spikes occurred during key movements:
- High Volume on Breakdowns: The sharp declines in February 2024, June 2024, and particularly the crash in February-March 2025 were accompanied by very high volume (e.g., 561,400 on 23-02-2024, 319,500 on 27-02-2025). This indicates strong selling pressure (capitulation).
- High Volume on Breakouts: The rally in April 2024 and the recent surge in June 2025 had high volume, confirming genuine buying interest.
- Verdict: Volume confirms the strength of both the downtrend (sell-offs on high volume) and the few bullish rallies (advances on high volume). The recent activity shows moderate volume, typical of a consolidation phase.
4. Moving Averages (MAs) & Crossovers
- Death Cross: A bearish “Death Cross” occurred when the 50-day EMA crossed below the 200-day EMA around mid-2024. This was a strong confirmation of the entrenched downtrend and this configuration remains in place.
- MA Alignment: Throughout the downtrend, the short-term MAs (e.g., EMA9, EMA20) were consistently below the long-term MAs (SMA50, SMA200), which is a classic bearish alignment.
- Recent Action: The price has recently moved above its short-term MAs (EMA9, EMA20), which is the first step for a potential recovery. However, it remains well below the SMA50 and SMA200.
- Verdict: The moving average structure remains BEARISH from a long-term perspective. Short-term momentum has turned slightly positive.
5. Momentum Indicators
- RSI (Relative Strength Index):
- The RSI hit overbought (>70) levels during the peak in April 2024 and June 2025, correctly foreshadowing pullbacks.
- It reached deeply oversold (<30) levels during the March 2025 crash, even dipping into the teens, signaling an exhausted sell-off and a potential bounce.
- Currently, the RSI is around 57, which is in neutral territory, giving room for the price to move in either direction
- MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):
- The MACD histogram was predominantly negative throughout the long downtrend.
- It turned positive in June 2025, coinciding with the strong rally from the lows.
- Recently, the MACD line has been hovering around the zero line and the signal line, indicating neutral momentum and a lack of strong directional bias.
- Verdict: Momentum has recovered from deeply oversold conditions but is now neutral. This aligns with the price being in a consolidation phase.
6. Chart & Candlestick Patterns
- Major Pattern: The entire period from the April 2024 peak to the March 2025 low forms a large Downtrend.
- Potential Reversal Pattern: The price action from March 2025 onwards shows a possible “Double Bottom” pattern, with the first bottom in March 2025 (~3.02) and a higher low in July 2025 (~3.50). A break above the neckline (around 3.86) would confirm this pattern and project a move towards 4.00+.
- Candlesticks: The data shows large red candles during the crash (bearish momentum) and the formation of some bullish candles (e.g., hammer-like formations) near the March 2025 low, hinting at a potential reversal.
Synthesis & Trading Outlook
| Aspect | Current Signal | Strength |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Trend | Bearish (Long-term) | Strong |
| Short-Term Trend | Neutral to Slightly Bullish | Weak |
| Support | 3.50 | Strong |
| Resistance | 3.82 – 3.86 | Strong |
| Volume | Confirmational | Moderate |
| Momentum (RSI/MACD) | Neutral | Neutral |
| Moving Averages | Bearish Alignment | Strong |
Bullish Scenario:
- A sustained breakout above 3.86 on high volume could signal the start of a larger recovery, with targets towards 4.00 and then 4.10. Traders might consider this a potential entry point for a swing trade, with a stop-loss below 3.50.
Bearish Scenario:
- A failure to break 3.86 and a drop below the key support at 3.50 would reinstate the downtrend, with the next major target being the March 2025 lows near 3.02.
Neutral/Range-Bound Scenario:
- The most likely immediate scenario is continued consolidation between 3.50 and 3.86. In this case, a range-trading strategy (buy near support, sell near resistance) could be employed.
Conclusion
PETRONM is at a critical technical juncture. The brutal downtrend appears to have concluded, and the stock is building a base. However, the burden of proof is on the bulls. The evidence is not yet conclusive for a new bull market.
- For conservative investors: It is advisable to wait for a more definitive signal, such as a confirmed breakout above 3.86 or, even better, a “Golden Cross” where the 50-day MA crosses above the 200-day MA.
- For aggressive traders: The current range between 3.50 and 3.86 offers trading opportunities, with a close watch on the key levels for a breakout or breakdown.
Disclaimer: This is a technical analysis based on historical data and should not be considered as financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.
